Record development completions in Australia’s industrial market last year have led to a greater divergence in vacancy rates and rental performance in different precincts depending on supply  levels, according to the latest research from Knight Frank. 

The firm’s Australian Industrial Review Q4 2024 found the construction of new supply was expected to  pull back slightly in 2025, with 2.3 million square metres expected to be completed this year compared  to 2.6 million square metres in 2024. 

Sydney is expected to have 887,000sq m of stock delivered this year (around the same as the  860,000 in 2024), Melbourne will have 634,000sq m (down 41.5% from the 1 million+ square metres last year) and Brisbane is expected to have around 567,000sq m of stock delivered this year  (compared to more than 666,000sq m last year). 

Development completions last year led to industrial vacancy in Australia’s East Coast cities tripling  during 2024 to 2.2 million square metres, however the vacancy rate has only normalised, now sitting  at a combined 3% for Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane. 

The largest uplift in vacancy over Q4 was in Melbourne, which had a 10.2% rise, while Sydney  vacancy increased by 4.3% and Brisbane vacancy fell by 4.7%. Sydney vacancy is now 2%, while  vacancy in Melbourne is 3.3% and Brisbane vacancy is 4.3%.

Despite the rise in vacancy rental growth has also continued, with the Knight Frank report finding rents  increased modestly during Q4 in all Australian prime industrial markets, ranging from 0.7% to 1.6%.  

Across the whole of 2024, Adelaide had the highest prime net rental growth of 12%, followed by  Brisbane (7.2%), Melbourne (6.7%), Perth (6.1%) and Sydney (3.9%). 

While rental growth is ongoing overall, as Knight Frank’s Australian Horizon 2025 report, released at  the end of 2024, predicted, there has been a deepening divergence in performance depending on  location and supply levels. 

In the East Coast cities rental growth in Q4 was driven by only one or two precincts – most notably  South Sydney, East Melbourne and TradeCoast/North Brisbane – with rents flat in the others. 

Knight Frank National Head of Industrial Logistics James Templeton said: “Sydney’s West is  currently where we are seeing the highest vacancy in the industrial market – despite still being under  3% - and consequently we have seen effective rents fall in these areas by up to 8%. 

“In comparison the South precinct is where vacancy is the lowest – under 1% - and rents rose by more  than 8% over 2024. 

“We are seeing a similar story in Melbourne, where the East has the tightest vacancy and rents have  risen by more than 7%, while in the West and North rents have risen at a lower rate due to higher  vacancy. 

“In Brisbane the sought after TradeCoast has seen significant rental growth of 14%, with a vacancy  rate of 3%, while in the South, where vacancy is 7.5% rents have risen by just under 3%.” 

Knight Frank Partner, Research and Consulting in Queensland Jennelle Wilson said vacancy in  Australia’s industrial market was now considered to be back in line with long-term levels after the  extreme lows of 2022 and 2023. 

“In the first half of the year there is the potential for vacancy rise further with ongoing completions  flowing through the market and relatively subdued demand,” she said. 

“After projects under construction are completed, we expect speculative construction to fall away in  the second half of the year as developers become more conservative. This will assist to return market  balance and stabilise vacancy levels during 2025. 

“While face rents are holding across all markets and sub-markets the growing incentive levels in  certain precincts will continue to drive highly divergent results across the cities and precincts. 

“Improving import volumes arising from a pick up in economic growth and retail spending point to  tenant demand stabilising in 2025.” 

The Knight Frank report found leasing take up softened over the course of 2024 with the Q4 East  Coast total of 552,474sq m the lowest since Q3 2020.  

The annual total take up for 2024 at 2.6 million square meters was 19.4% lower than the year before.  Despite this decrease, this is still 8% above the 10-year average but a retreat from the space scramble  of 2022 to 2023. 

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